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A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an airplane, a man decides to always bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an airplane having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!" At any time during the first or subsequent betting rounds, if any player makes a bet, all other players are required to match it or to surrender their cards and forfeit their interest in the pot. If one player bets and no other player chooses to match the bet, the deal ends immediately, the bettor is awarded the pot, no cards are shown, and the next deal begins. This is what makes bluffing possible, and is a primary feature of the game that distinguishes it from other vying games and from other games that make use of poker hand rankings. The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, Lance Humble and Carl Cooper, 1980 A random event is less likely to occur because it recently happened. The outcome of future events can be affected if external factors are allowed to change the probability of the events (e.g. changes in the rules of a game affecting a sports team's performance levels). [edit] Insurance is statistically a bad bet for the player who has no direct knowledge nor estimation (e.g. through card counting) of the dealer's 'hole card' because Insurance has a negative expected value for the player. Even for the player who has been dealt a natural (a two-card 21) it is unwise to take Insurance. In such a case, the dealer usually asks the player "Even money?" This means that instead of 3:2, the player with the natural accepts to be paid off at 2:2. Thus it is exactly the same thing as buying Insurance, losing the Insurance bet and getting paid 3:2 on the natural. (If the player with the natural refuses "even money", and the dealer turns over a natural, it is a tie.) Normal (aka "late") surrender. Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row. A believer in the gambler's fallacy might say, "If the next coin flipped were to come up heads, it would generate a run of five successive heads. The probability of a run of five successive heads is 0.55 = 0.03125; therefore, the next coin flipped only has a 1 in 32 chance of coming up heads." Despite its simplicity (or perhaps because of it), the punto banco version of baccarat offers some of the lowest house advantage available in a casino. The player bet has a house advantage of 1.24%, and the banker bet (despite the 5% commission) has an advantage of 1.06%. The tie bet has a much higher house advantage of 14.44%, based on six decks in play. [1] Example: The player originally bets $10 and the dealer shows an Ace. The player takes Insurance by betting an additional amount of $5. Suppose the player's hand is 19. The dealer turns up his 'hole card' after the Insurance betting period is over -- and it's a 10-valued card. The player loses his $10 bet. But the Insurance bet wins, so the player gets 2:1 on his $5 Insurance wager and receives $10 (on top of the $5 which are returned to him). Note that the player came out even (i.e. did not lose any money) on that round. Blackjack hands are scored by their point total. The hand with the highest total wins as long as it doesn't exceed 21; a hand with a higher total than 21 is said to bust. Cards 2 through 10 are worth their face value, and face cards (jack, queen, king) are also worth 10. An ace's value is 11 unless this would cause the player to bust, in which case it is worth 1. A hand in which an ace's value is counted as 11 is called a soft hand. Another interesting legend I turned up about the origins of the game said that the wheel's inventor actually sold his soul to Satan for it. That one's pretty tough to prove, but an interesting coincidence (or is it?) is that if you add up all the numbers on the Roulette wheel, the total is 666. I'm not sure if that makes me more prone to bet on red or black. A casino generally has: Double down: Double the wager, take exactly one more card, and then stand.
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